Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
43 0x4374…eff3 crypto 2065 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$1,380 (-18%) realized −$1,380 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%1093W / 722L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day63.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,029
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 395 +19.2% +7.8% 64% 64% +7.8%
≤30d 1278 +19.5% +8.1% 64% 64% +9.5%
≤90d 1815 +11.7% +1.1% 60% 60% +2.8%
all 1815 +11.7% +1.1% 60% 60% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.1% 60% +2.8%
10% ← realistic here -8.6% 60% -7.0%
15% -17.4% 58% -16.0%
20% -25.5% 52% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,380
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses1093 / 722
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1815 / 2065
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day63.4
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1815 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records