Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
43 0x4372…6a96 sports 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,666 (+24%) realized +$3,759 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%29W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,385
7 days+$2,968
14 days+$2,937
30 days+$2,717
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$5,510
other 24% −$461
world 19% −$1,970
politics 5% +$114
crypto 2% −$134
economics 0% −$25
culture 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +50.5% +36.2% 37% 37% +23.2%
≤30d 66 +42.2% +28.7% 36% 36% +17.4%
≤90d 76 +23.5% +11.7% 32% 32% +8.8%
all 113 +3.8% -6.1% 26% 26% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 26% +11.5%
10% -15.1% 26% +0.9%
15% -23.3% 26% -8.9%
20% -30.8% 26% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$397 vs −$100 · ×3.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$1,108
Realized+$3,759
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses29 / 84
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions10
Markets (closed)113 / 123
History coverage138d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $340 $474 +$134 (+39%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $172 $155 −$16 (-10%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 45¢ 50¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Over 34¢ 29¢ $102 $87 −$15 (-15%)
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $32 $56 +$23 (+72%)
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Austria 22¢ 22¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes 18¢ 5¢ $100 $29 −$71 (-71%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $50 $29 −$21 (-42%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $150 $7 −$143 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $82 +$806 +982%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $103 +$245 +238%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $111 +$489 +442%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $415 +$685 +165%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $121 −$118 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $44 +$156 +352%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $143 +$157 +109%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $209 +$291 +140%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $104 +$196 +188%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $90 −$88 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $445 −$437 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $104 −$102 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $138 +$112 +82%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $251 −$245 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $152 −$150 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $382 −$376 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $307 −$301 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $148 −$145 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $424 +$376 +89%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $139 −$136 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $143 −$142 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $87 −$85 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $35 +$465 +1346%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $138 +$362 +262%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $56 +$444 +785%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $143 +$357 +250%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $49 −$48 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $47 −$46 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $508 +$492 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $47 −$47 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $110 +$190 +172%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $166 −$162 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $99 −$97 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $108 +$92 +85%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$173 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $414 −$408 -99%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $306 +$302 +99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $102 +$142 +140%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $409 −$405 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 22¢ $56 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $102 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $104 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 12¢ $57 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 12¢ $9 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $121 4h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 18¢ $111 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $103 5h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $151 5h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $264 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $33 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $11 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $143 7h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 22¢ $90 15h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $209 15h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $104 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $98 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $95 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $104 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $252 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 29h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $131 30h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $7 30h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $128 30h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $152 36h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $98 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,108.36 · official $1,125.47 · 642 history records