Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4371…2ee5 sports 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$614 (-12%) realized −$520 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,318per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$115
other 43% −$728
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -24.2% -31.4% 0% 0% -26.6%
≤30d 3 -24.2% -31.4% 0% 0% -26.6%
≤90d 3 -24.2% -31.4% 0% 0% -26.6%
all 3 -24.2% -31.4% 0% 0% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.4% 0% -26.6%
10% -38.0% 0% -33.6%
15% ← realistic here -44.0% 0% -40.0%
20% -49.4% 0% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$250 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$520
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,318
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $94 $1 −$94 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $1,682 −$7 -0%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $1,303 −$108 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $994 −$634 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 100¢ $1,011 7m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 65¢ $665 17m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 41¢ $664 18m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 61¢ $1,017 20m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $97 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 9¢ $143 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,199 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $597 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $597 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $968 3h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $334 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 94¢ $24 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 11¢ $334 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 30¢ $91 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 32¢ $59 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $106 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.64 · official $0.64 (match) · 24 history records