Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:17:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

43 0x4371…b44e other 13 markets active 5d ago coverage 180d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$213 (+100%) realized +$216 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +72% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip

Net edge+55%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown10%max

Avg bet$16per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit8%portable

Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 180d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)+55.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-8.3%	-17.0%	0%	0%	-18.9%
≤30d	2	-8.3%	-17.0%	0%	0%	-18.9%
≤90d	2	-8.3%	-17.0%	0%	0%	-18.9%
all	4	+71.8%	+55.4%	25%	25%	+108.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+55.4%	25%	+108.8%
10%	+40.6%	25%	+88.8%
15%	+27.0%	25%	+70.5%
20%	+14.5%	25%	+53.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +72% · $-wt +131% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$238 vs −$8 · ×31.54 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×10.51 per $1 lost it wins $10.51

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage

Net worth$43

Realized+$216

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions9

Markets (closed)4 / 13

History coverage180d

Avg bet$16

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown10%

Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 9 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	10¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	17¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	14¢	$6	$5	−$1 (-17%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	7¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-24%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$5	$3	−$2 (-35%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 11	$1	$0	-6%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202	Jun 11	$15	−$2	-11%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202	Dec 16	$72	+$238	+331%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202	Dec 16	$77	−$21	-27%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	48¢	$1	4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$6	4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$5	4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$5	4d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	49¢	$1	4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202	SELL Yes	98¢	$310	182d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202	SELL Yes	10¢	$14	182d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202	SELL Yes	16¢	$13	182d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202	SELL Yes	11¢	$14	183d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202	BUY Yes	26¢	$57	184d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202	BUY Yes	21¢	$57	184d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202	SELL Yes	14¢	$28	184d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202	BUY Yes	17¢	$15	185d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202	BUY Yes	16¢	$15	185d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202	BUY Yes	10¢	$20	185d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.10 · official $43.11 (match) · 26 history records