Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:39:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
43 0x4370…2446 crypto 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$164 (+17%) realized +$164 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate60%26W / 17L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +20.1% +8.6% 60% 58% +5.7%
≤30d 43 +20.1% +8.6% 60% 58% +5.7%
≤90d 43 +20.1% +8.6% 60% 58% +5.7%
all 43 +20.1% +8.6% 60% 58% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 58% +5.7%
10% -1.8% 53% -4.4%
15% -11.3% 47% -13.7%
20% -20.0% 44% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$22 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$164
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses26 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage3d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$26 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$48 +153%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$14 -70%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$28 -92%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$18 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$10 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$19 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$3 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$39 +184%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$30 +145%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$17 +81%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$30 +142%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$32 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$9 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$6 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$15 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$7 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$18 -85%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$29 +140%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$31 +149%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$25 +120%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$15 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$28 +132%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$30 +144%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$34 +164%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$24 +115%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$18 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $31 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $31 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $6 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $2 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $31 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $31 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $31 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $21 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 33h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 34h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 42h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $6 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records