Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:06:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x436b…765c crypto 1317 markets active 1h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$767 (-11%) realized −$585 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%632W / 662L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$14
14 days−$23
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$294
world 23% −$65
other 19% −$302
sports 9% −$61
politics 4% +$10
finance 2% +$70
culture 1% +$34
economics 1% +$3
tech 1% +$5
weather 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -22.5% -29.8% 42% 33% -25.4%
≤30d 44 -22.5% -29.9% 45% 32% -28.6%
≤90d 165 -14.8% -22.9% 47% 39% -16.2%
all 1294 -12.1% -20.5% 49% 46% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 46% -17.3%
10% -28.1% 42% -25.3%
15% -35.1% 35% -32.5%
20% -41.4% 28% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9.330798288769417% → late -14.950272810520397% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$585
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses632 / 662
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions23
Markets (closed)1294 / 1317
History coverage182d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 1294 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 50¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+94%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 69¢ 35¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-49%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 50¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 60¢ 28¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-54%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 11¢ 22¢ $3 $5 +$3 (+96%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 82¢ 78¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 47¢ 21¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-55%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 60¢ 38¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-36%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 55¢ 57¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+78%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? No 65¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
O/U 0.5 Rounds Under 33¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-71%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 28¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-66%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-39%)
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-72%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 30¢ 39¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? Yes 93¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +47%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -88%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 +$8 +79%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$2 +90%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Jun 09 $3 $0 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $10 +$10 +96%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Jun 08 $12 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Vamos vs Bigetron MY by VIT (BO5) - MPL Jun 05 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1 $0 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $63 +$14 +22%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$2 +16%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 31 $10 +$4 +45%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? May 30 $1 +$4 +285%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? May 28 $20 +$15 +77%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $1 +$1 +97%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $20 −$2 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $20 +$1 +3%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump praise Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026? May 21 $51 +$31 +61%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 19 $20 +$12 +59%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $20 +$1 +3%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $10 $0 +5%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $50 −$4 -8%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $20 −$1 -4%
Will San Marino be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 12 $2 $0 -24%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 12 $11 +$9 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 8? May 11 $4 −$1 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 50¢ $10 1h
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Under 33¢ $2 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $6 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 3d
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC BUY Fakers 49¢ $3 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 5d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? SELL No 70¢ $3 5d
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY No 65¢ $3 5d
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY No 65¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? BUY No 64¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $20 5d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 5d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 5d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 5d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 9? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.83 · official $97.83 (match) · 3500 history records