trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15¢ | 16¢ | $89 | $96 | +$8 (+9%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | $80 | $84 | +$4 (+5%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 58¢ | $6 | $6 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET | May 18 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET | May 18 | $5 | −$2 | -31% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET | May 18 | $5 | +$1 | +13% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET | May 18 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET | May 18 | $5 | +$1 | +15% |
| Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 | May 04 | $119 | −$116 | -97% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 04 | $19 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 04 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 2 | Apr 06 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies | Mar 01 | $87 | +$4 | +5% |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 | Feb 24 | $5 | −$4 | -82% |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 | Feb 23 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 | Feb 20 | $5 | −$3 | -50% |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 | Feb 20 | $8 | −$3 | -32% |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? | Feb 17 | $5 | +$6 | +127% |
| Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-17? | Feb 17 | $5 | +$11 | +220% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 5 | +1.3% | -8.4% | 80% | 40% | -8.4% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -20.7% | -28.3% | 67% | 22% | -69.8% |
| all | 16 | -6.2% | -15.1% | 56% | 25% | -44.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.1% | 25% | -44.2% |
| 10% | -23.3% | 12% | -49.5% |
| 15% | -30.7% | 12% | -54.4% |
| 20% | -37.5% | 12% | -58.8% |