Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:42:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
43 0x4368…965d crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,209 (+20%) realized +$1,210 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%13W / 32L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$467
7 days−$469
14 days−$831
30 days+$279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$300
other 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -77.4% -79.6% 12% 12% -87.8%
≤30d 45 -26.9% -33.8% 29% 29% -4.9%
≤90d 45 -26.9% -33.8% 29% 29% -4.9%
all 45 -26.9% -33.8% 29% 29% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.8% 29% -4.9%
10% -40.2% 29% -14.0%
15% -46.0% 29% -22.3%
20% -51.3% 24% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$266 vs −$99 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,210
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses13 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage23d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET Jun 29 $330 −$319 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $78 −$74 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $31 −$29 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $40 +$33 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET Jun 18 $220 −$208 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET Jun 18 $163 −$155 -95%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $110 −$104 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5PM ET Jun 09 $96 −$90 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 09 $71 −$67 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $352 −$342 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $190 −$180 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $293 +$703 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $250 +$299 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $132 +$119 +90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 11? Jun 08 $40 −$38 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $406 −$393 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $100 −$96 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $123 −$40 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 08 $298 +$229 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 08 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 08 $208 +$101 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $519 −$58 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 08 $245 +$214 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 08 $94 −$89 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $66 +$25 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 08 $138 +$775 +562%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12AM ET Jun 08 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $94 +$191 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $164 +$435 +265%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 07 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 06 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 06 $269 +$231 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 06 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 06 $109 +$98 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $328 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $220 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $163 10d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 15d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $68 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $42 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $64 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $30 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $71 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $352 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $42 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $147 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $297 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $41 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $53 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.46 · official $1.46 (match) · 91 history records