Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:04:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
43 0x4362…9e47 other 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$24,548 (+19%) realized +$24,782 · open −$234
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%28W / 28L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$1,306per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$982est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$1,266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$20,588
sports 37% +$19,311
crypto 4% +$5,503
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+41.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.8% -8.8% 44% 44% -1.8%
≤30d 56 +56.5% +41.6% 50% 50% +42.2%
≤90d 56 +56.5% +41.6% 50% 50% +42.2%
all 56 +56.5% +41.6% 50% 50% +42.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +41.6% 50% +42.2%
10% ← realistic here +28.1% 50% +28.6%
15% +15.7% 48% +16.1%
20% +4.4% 46% +4.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$1,986) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +87% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,580 vs −$950 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.72 per $1 lost it wins $2.72
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$1,266
Realized+$24,782
Unrealized−$234
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses28 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$982
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 101
History coverage17d
Avg bet$1,306
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 48¢ 40¢ $1,500 $1,266 −$234 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots AN Jun 29 $1,500 +$3,010 +201%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $1,018 −$1,018 -100%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals Jun 29 $57 −$57 -100%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 29 $1,021 −$1,021 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $746 +$253 +34%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $1,729 +$2,184 +126%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $321 −$313 -98%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $2,337 −$2,000 -86%
Noni Madueke: 1+ shots AND Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots AND Yoane Wissa: 1+ Jun 28 $500 +$1,941 +388%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 28 $776 −$776 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2,555 −$2,500 -98%
Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots Jun 27 $10 +$5 +46%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 27 $57 −$57 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $837 +$511 +61%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 27 $2,022 +$1,149 +57%
Amine Gouiri: 2+ shots Jun 27 $19 −$18 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japa Jun 21 $2,041 +$4,328 +212%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $154 −$150 -97%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $1,015 +$983 +97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 21 $1,021 −$1,021 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 21 $308 −$308 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $2,044 +$5,503 +269%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $513 +$961 +187%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $1,020 +$1,982 +194%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $1,014 +$890 +88%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $2,547 +$4,054 +159%
Son Heungmin: 3+ shots Jun 20 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals Jun 20 $308 −$308 -100%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 20 $1,788 −$1,788 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,019 +$1,321 +130%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,538 +$2,558 +101%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $512 −$512 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,814 −$1,814 -100%
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals Jun 19 $978 −$978 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,806 −$1,806 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $1,529 −$1,529 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 19 $1,065 −$1,065 -100%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 19 $1,452 −$1,452 -100%
Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists Jun 19 $922 −$922 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 19 $2,939 −$2,939 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $139 −$135 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,420 +$1,199 +84%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $455 +$259 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,025 +$1,423 +70%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $898 +$4,550 +507%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1,986 +$2,453 +124%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $4,031 +$8,564 +212%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance AND BUY 4¢ $500 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $1,523 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY 10¢ $449 1h
Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY 52¢ $5,000 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $999 2h
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4h
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $21 4h
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $26 4h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals AND Felix Nmecha: 1 BUY 2¢ $181 4h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $1,021 6h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $1,018 6h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY 11¢ $800 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. BUY 3¢ $50 7h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY 16¢ $1,493 7h
Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots AND Cody Gakpo: 2+ shots AND Rayan: 2+ shots AN BUY 10¢ $500 7h
Kai Havertz: 2+ shots AND Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots AND Cody Gakpo: 2+ BUY 25¢ $50 7h
Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots AND Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots AND Bruno Guimarãe BUY 7¢ $25 7h
Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots AND Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots AND Bruno Guimarãe BUY 7¢ $25 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY 10¢ $499 7h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $746 7h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY 3¢ $250 7h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots AN BUY 33¢ $1,500 9h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Braz BUY 2¢ $250 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,913 24h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 16¢ $321 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 43¢ $1,729 25h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND South Africa vs. BUY 8¢ $798 28h
Jonathan David: 2+ shots AND South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Co BUY 53¢ $2,000 28h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9,990 41h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $309 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,265.62 · official $7,944.13 · 195 history records