Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

43 0x4361…37f6 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$264 (+30%) realized +$250 · open +$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip

Net edge+20%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%8W / 5L

Drawdown46%max

Avg bet$63per market

Trades / day2.6pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit79%portable

Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$197

7 days+$294

14 days+$294

30 days+$294

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+20.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+33.0%	+20.3%	62%	62%	+24.6%
≤30d	13	+33.0%	+20.3%	62%	62%	+24.6%
≤90d	13	+33.0%	+20.3%	62%	62%	+24.6%
all	13	+33.0%	+20.3%	62%	62%	+24.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+20.3%	62%	+24.6%
10%	+8.8%	62%	+12.7%
15%	-1.7%	62%	+1.8%
20%	-11.3%	62%	-8.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 41% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +33% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +55% → late +14% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$71 vs −$55 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$114

Realized+$250

Unrealized+$14

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses8 / 5

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions1

Markets (closed)13 / 14

History coverage9d

Avg bet$63

Trades / day2.6

Drawdown46%

Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$100	$114	+$14 (+14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)	Jun 17	$36	+$52	+146%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$61	−$60	-98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$86	+$80	+93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$51	−$51	-100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$61	+$41	+67%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$26	−$25	-98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$101	+$94	+93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$51	+$65	+128%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$40	−$40	-100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$98	−$98	-100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$65	+$139	+213%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$36	+$37	+105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$71	+$60	+84%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)	BUY Argentina	40¢	$36	1h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5	BUY Under	45¢	$61	19h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	51¢	$86	33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5	SELL Under	100¢	$101	33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5	BUY Over	30¢	$26	35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5	BUY Under	59¢	$61	42h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$196	47h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$116	47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$101	2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$51	2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$51	2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	99¢	$204	2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	31¢	$65	2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5	BUY Over	44¢	$40	2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$51	3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$47	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$73	4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	99¢	$131	4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	53¢	$10	4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	53¢	$30	4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	53¢	$30	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	48¢	$36	4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.31 · official $114.31 (match) · 38 history records