Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:02:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
43 0x435f…2de6 sports 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$981 (+4%) realized +$970 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate69%45W / 20L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$339per market
Trades / day66.1pace
Fees−$320est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$686now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$947
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +4.1% -5.8% 69% 57% -5.5%
≤30d 65 +4.1% -5.8% 69% 57% -5.5%
≤90d 65 +4.1% -5.8% 69% 57% -5.5%
all 65 +4.1% -5.8% 69% 57% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 57% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 40% -14.6%
15% -23.1% 26% -22.8%
20% -30.6% 15% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$182 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$686
Realized+$970
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses45 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$320
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage4d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day66.1
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BetBoom Team 90¢ 92¢ $675 $686 +$11 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $240 +$148 +62%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,233 +$197 +16%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $201 −$92 -46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $430 +$69 +16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $621 +$132 +21%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $196 −$196 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $518 −$266 -51%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $600 +$292 +49%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $691 −$125 -18%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $245 +$12 +5%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $259 +$123 +47%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $260 +$15 +6%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $274 −$2 -1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $381 +$105 +28%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $216 +$84 +39%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $226 +$31 +14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $233 +$76 +33%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $394 +$34 +9%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 Jun 14 $167 +$196 +117%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 170.5 Jun 14 $323 −$9 -3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $497 −$497 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $489 +$8 +2%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $557 +$30 +6%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $625 +$32 +5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $742 −$172 -23%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $368 −$275 -75%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $388 +$66 +17%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $301 +$120 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $245 −$245 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $210 −$210 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $201 +$87 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $274 +$274 +100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $205 +$46 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $296 +$183 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $507 +$33 +7%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $589 +$50 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $315 +$184 +59%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $496 +$166 +33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $274 +$34 +12%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $229 −$20 -9%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $226 +$48 +21%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Jun 13 $210 −$210 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 Jun 13 $90 −$87 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $134 −$134 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $594 +$201 +34%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $186 −$186 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $402 +$192 +48%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $230 +$74 +32%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $312 −$312 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 +$219 +216%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 90¢ $576 12m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 90¢ $27 12m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 90¢ $72 12m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $388 46m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 61¢ $240 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 70¢ $347 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 50¢ $254 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 46¢ $339 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 38¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 38¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 38¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 38¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 38¢ $233 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 40¢ $118 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 40¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 40¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 40¢ $37 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 40¢ $102 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 40¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 35¢ $251 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 65¢ $463 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $440 2h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Betclic Apogee Esports 20¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 65¢ $101 3h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 55¢ $109 3h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 50¢ $100 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $499 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 86¢ $72 22h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 86¢ $307 22h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 86¢ $51 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $686.25 · official $686.25 (match) · 280 history records