Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:41:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x435e…cfc4
other · 16 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$5 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$75
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)6 / 16
History coverage15d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%
Chart Positions 10 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $11 −$1 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $9 +$1 (+11%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $9 +$3 (+46%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 11¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +205%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 91% −$7
crypto 6% +$1
sports 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 9h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 9h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 10h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 10h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 25h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 25h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 30h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 30h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 30h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 35h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 35h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -21.3% -28.8% 17% 17% -56.8%
≤30d 6 -21.3% -28.8% 17% 17% -56.8%
≤90d 6 -21.3% -28.8% 17% 17% -56.8%
all 6 -21.3% -28.8% 17% 17% -56.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 17% -56.8%
10% -35.6% 17% -61.0%
15% -41.8% 17% -64.7%
20% -47.5% 17% -68.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.21 · official $75.21 (match) · 96 history records