trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $14 | $12 | −$2 (-11%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $12 | $11 | −$1 (-10%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 2¢ | $8 | $9 | +$1 (+11%) |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 2¢ | $6 | $9 | +$3 (+46%) |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-13%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | $5 | $6 | +$1 (+19%) |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-15%) |
| Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $3 | −$3 | -97% |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $1 | +$2 | +205% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | -24% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -21.3% | -28.8% | 17% | 17% | -56.8% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -21.3% | -28.8% | 17% | 17% | -56.8% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -21.3% | -28.8% | 17% | 17% | -56.8% |
| all | 6 | -21.3% | -28.8% | 17% | 17% | -56.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -28.8% | 17% | -56.8% |
| 10% | -35.6% | 17% | -61.0% |
| 15% | -41.8% | 17% | -64.7% |
| 20% | -47.5% | 17% | -68.2% |