Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:51:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x435c…0f84 other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%40W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$15
politics 34% +$2
other 14% +$5
sports 9% +$2
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 -3.6% -12.8% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 22 -2.9% -12.2% 41% 0% -9.7%
all 99 +0.5% -9.0% 40% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 2% -9.6%
10% -17.7% 1% -18.3%
15% -25.7% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.0% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses40 / 59
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)99 / 102
History coverage465d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 43¢ 44¢ $69 $70 +$1 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $141 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $160 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $146 −$1 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $179 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $99 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $155 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $142 +$2 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $156 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $28 −$13 -46%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $19 −$6 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 19 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,070 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $481 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $49 +$3 +6%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $10 −$1 -8%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 11 $59 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,174 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11? Aug 10 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 17 $16 $0 +3%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jul 16 $1 $0 -20%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 16 $13 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before August? Jul 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 16 $13 $0 -2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 16 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 11–18? Jul 15 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 15 $14 $0 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 14 $20 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Jul 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jul 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 09 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $69 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $141 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $141 5h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.20 · official $70.03 (match) · 355 history records