Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:51:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x435b…4f20 crypto 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-2%) realized −$70 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate21%20W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days+$2
14 days−$19
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$10
crypto 17% −$96
politics 14% +$183
sports 5% −$44
world 3% −$48
tech 2% −$45
culture 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -16.0% -24.0% 62% 33% -9.4%
≤30d 42 -13.2% -21.5% 36% 21% -10.9%
≤90d 84 -53.4% -57.8% 20% 13% -13.1%
all 97 -34.7% -40.9% 21% 14% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.9% 14% -12.5%
10% -46.6% 11% -20.9%
15% -51.7% 9% -28.5%
20% -56.5% 9% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$9 · ×3.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$346
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses20 / 77
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)97 / 110
History coverage110d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $50 $77 +$27 (+54%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+53%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-60%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $3 $6 +$2 (+83%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $180 +$6 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $81 +$70 +86%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $80 +$2 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $86 +$15 +17%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 13 $400 +$25 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $169 +$5 +3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 3? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 30? May 30 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 27? May 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 26? May 26 $9 +$91 +1074%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 25? May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 25? May 25 $21 −$20 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4AM ET May 25 $27 −$26 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 24? May 25 $11 +$64 +607%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 23? May 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 22? May 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 22? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 21? May 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 21? May 21 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 14? May 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 23? Apr 23 $3 −$3 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $51 1h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $180 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $51 30h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 61¢ $51 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $101 34h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 40h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $100 2d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $81 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $80 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $66 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $12 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 52¢ $10 3d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.05 · official $346.05 (match) · 236 history records