Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4359…1260 sports 537 markets active 0h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$407 (+3%) realized +$416 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%297W / 238L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days−$11
14 days−$19
30 days+$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$137
other 17% +$451
crypto 6% +$17
economics 1% −$81
politics 1% −$24
culture 0% −$29
world 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +10.1% -0.4% 60% 60% -10.5%
≤30d 80 +13.3% +2.5% 64% 64% -3.3%
≤90d 329 -11.8% -20.2% 51% 51% -17.1%
all 535 -3.2% -12.4% 56% 55% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 55% -6.7%
10% -20.8% 52% -15.6%
15% -28.4% 43% -23.7%
20% -35.5% 30% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$21 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$416
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses297 / 238
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions1
Markets (closed)535 / 537
History coverage332d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 535 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ 28¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 206 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 +$9 +46%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $61 +$42 +70%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $32 +$17 +51%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $19 +$13 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $82 −$2 -3%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 A Jun 18 $23 +$59 +250%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 17 $18 −$6 -30%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $97 −$96 -99%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $30 +$16 +55%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$30 +60%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $52 +$48 +93%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $53 −$52 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $40 +$12 +31%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $15 +$8 +50%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$10 +180%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $15 +$6 +39%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $16 +$5 +35%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 +$9 +60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $15 +$9 +57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $16 +$4 +27%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $15 +$5 +31%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $15 +$14 +90%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $16 −$16 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$10 +101%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$20 +102%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $6 +$5 +90%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $15 +$8 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 +$10 +339%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $14 +$7 +50%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $15 +$12 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $12 +$13 +103%
England vs. Costa Rica: England O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $16 +$4 +26%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $19 +$12 +64%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $7 +$7 +97%
Niger vs. Mauritania: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $4 +$4 +82%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $9 +$5 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 50¢ $30 18m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 20m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 51m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $103 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $49 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $32 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $33 6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $61 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 58¢ $19 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 74¢ $80 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $82 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 A BUY 28¢ $23 30h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo SELL Ronaldo 13¢ $13 30h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $20 35h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 18¢ $13 35h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 17¢ $5 35h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $97 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $30 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $50 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $52 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $53 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $40 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $30 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $51 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $15 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $15 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.00 · official $13.00 · 1010 history records