Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4353…6b02 sports 592 markets active 19h ago coverage 542d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-2%) realized −$20 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate87%483W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$6
sports 27% −$4
politics 11% −$7
crypto 7% −$4
tech 6% +$1
world 6% −$1
weather 3% −$6
economics 3% −$2
finance 1% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +13.6% +2.7% 94% 62% +1.4%
≤30d 57 +3.4% -6.5% 88% 47% -5.0%
≤90d 121 -6.7% -15.6% 82% 34% -13.6%
all 555 -1.8% -11.1% 87% 27% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 27% -11.5%
10% -19.6% 11% -20.0%
15% -27.4% 5% -27.7%
20% -34.5% 2% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses483 / 72
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions37
Markets (closed)555 / 592
History coverage542d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 555 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 92¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 82¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 92¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? No 94¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? No 90¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Completed Match: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1 $0 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $1 $0 +26%
ITF Cuiaba: Salvador Price vs Nick Hardt Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 78°F or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $1 $0 +3%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.50 by May 31? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $1 $0 +38%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $1 $0 +16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $1 $0 +27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? May 31 $1 −$1 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1 +$1 +70%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 19h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $2 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 19h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $2 19h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $2 19h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $3 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 41h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $1 41h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $1 42h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 91¢ $1 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $5 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 91¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $2 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $2 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $1 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $1 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 82¢ $1 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $1 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $1 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $1 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $1 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $1 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.11 · official $88.09 (match) · 1195 history records