Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:02:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x434f…a4f7 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$26 (-5%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$27
other 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -2.0% -11.3% 59% 6% -14.3%
≤30d 17 -2.0% -11.3% 59% 6% -14.3%
≤90d 17 -2.0% -11.3% 59% 6% -14.3%
all 17 -2.0% -11.3% 59% 6% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 6% -14.3%
10% -19.8% 6% -22.5%
15% -27.6% 0% -30.0%
20% -34.7% 0% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 27 $48 +$17 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 27 $47 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $45 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$4 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$1 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $19 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 -0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records