Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x434a…1578 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,213 (-31%) realized −$3,043 · open −$170
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%8W / 19L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$148est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,787now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$1,779
14 days−$2,938
30 days−$2,938
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$1,356
other 32% −$1,753
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -33.8% -40.1% 32% 28% -32.8%
≤30d 27 -38.7% -44.5% 30% 26% -42.5%
≤90d 27 -38.7% -44.5% 30% 26% -42.5%
all 27 -38.7% -44.5% 30% 26% -42.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.5% 26% -42.5%
10% -49.8% 19% -48.0%
15% -54.7% 19% -53.0%
20% -59.1% 19% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -57% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$225 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1,787
Realized−$3,043
Unrealized−$170
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses8 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$148
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage11d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $1,457 $1,071 −$386 (-26%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Scotland 49¢ 70¢ $500 $716 +$216 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $313 +$4 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $120 −$117 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $138 +$129 +93%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$47 -92%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $301 −$126 -42%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $202 +$44 +22%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $613 +$90 +15%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$201 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $204 +$230 +113%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $527 −$185 -35%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $398 −$50 -12%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $233 −$73 -31%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $328 −$107 -32%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $203 +$153 +75%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $304 +$274 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $199 −$199 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $501 +$414 +83%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $440 −$433 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $244 −$239 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $406 −$299 -74%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $537 −$489 -91%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $285 −$280 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $86 −$86 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1,087 −$1,074 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 51¢ $215 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 48¢ $96 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 48¢ $82 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 48¢ $1 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 48¢ $5 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 48¢ $8 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 48¢ $24 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 48¢ $72 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 46¢ $317 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $313 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 23¢ $17 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 23¢ $102 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $4 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $138 27h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 22¢ $175 27h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $99 28h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $0 28h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $102 28h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $100 28h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 29h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL South Africa 71¢ $246 30h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 57¢ $202 31h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 30¢ $63 43h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 30¢ $27 43h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 30¢ $6 43h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 30¢ $2 43h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 30¢ $1 43h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 14¢ $71 44h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 57¢ $127 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,786.55 · official $1,786.55 (match) · 101 history records