Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:29:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
43 0x4346…248b other 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate21%13W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$7
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 76% −$14
politics 16% −$8
other 5% +$3
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% −$35
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 +10.6% +0.1% 17% 11% -5.5%
≤90d 47 -3.8% -13.0% 17% 11% -13.4%
all 62 +0.1% -9.4% 21% 11% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 11% -9.8%
10% -18.1% 11% -18.4%
15% -26.0% 11% -26.3%
20% -33.3% 11% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses13 / 49
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage617d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $6 +$7 +114%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $8 +$6 +79%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $74 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $71 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $72 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $68 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $7 +$5 +65%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $129 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $64 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $71 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $69 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 23 $64 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 22 $69 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $67 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $4 +$7 +165%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Red Wings vs. Flyers Apr 06 $8 +$8 +100%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 02 $17 −$17 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks Apr 02 $17 −$17 -100%
Canadiens vs. Predators Apr 02 $23 −$23 -100%
Avalanche vs. Penguins Apr 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $43 $0 +1%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 01 $22 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Hornets Mar 27 $20 +$19 +92%
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers: O/U 147.5 Mar 24 $21 +$20 +99%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 05 $82 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 15m
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 20h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $5 21h
Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $12 3d
Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $12 3d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 4d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 7d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 46¢ $6 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 10d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 12d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 14d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $17 15d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $17 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 16d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 16d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $8 17d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 17d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 20d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.50 · official $63.50 (match) · 295 history records