Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:28:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4345…be73 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate32%6W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$433
7 days−$443
14 days−$443
30 days−$443
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$428
other 19% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-45.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -44.1% -49.4% 29% 29% -29.5%
≤30d 17 -44.1% -49.4% 29% 29% -29.5%
≤90d 19 -39.6% -45.4% 32% 26% -24.3%
all 19 -39.6% -45.4% 32% 26% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.4% 26% -24.3%
10% -50.6% 16% -31.6%
15% -55.4% 11% -38.2%
20% -59.8% 5% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$38 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage37d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET Down 17¢ 22¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $108 −$31 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $51 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $72 −$32 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $131 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $94 +$30 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET Jun 29 $754 −$114 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $257 −$73 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $357 −$57 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $266 −$134 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $9 +$7 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $6 +$1 +15%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31? May 24 $121 −$8 -6%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? May 24 $371 +$11 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $15 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $21 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $13 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $7 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $20 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $21 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $14 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $15 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $9 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $55 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $83 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $78 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.31 · official $20.31 (match) · 178 history records