Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:00:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4342…5797
sports · 149 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,117 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,069 · open −$52
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$79
Realized−$3,069
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses82 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$292
Open positions7
Markets (closed)142 / 149
History coverage101d
Avg bet$426
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 7 History 142 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days+$55
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+21%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 30¢ 46¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+52%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Angels 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 12 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$18 +172%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $20 +$13 +66%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $26 +$24 +96%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 27 $30 $0 -1%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 25 $20 +$21 +105%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 24 $41 −$10 -24%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 24 $20 +$10 +52%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 24 $48 +$15 +32%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 19 $112 −$55 -49%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 17 $69 +$21 +31%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 16 $1,021 −$25 -2%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 13 $304 +$89 +29%
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 10 $193 −$32 -16%
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies May 07 $81 +$52 +65%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres May 03 $30 +$12 +38%
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 03 $30 −$7 -24%
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 01 $257 +$12 +5%
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 29 $31 −$8 -27%
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 29 $101 −$9 -9%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 29 $81 +$9 +11%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 29 $185 −$22 -12%
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals Apr 26 $225 +$38 +17%
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 26 $200 −$3 -1%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Apr 26 $430 +$14 +3%
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros Apr 26 $30 +$17 +58%
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 25 $100 +$27 +27%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays Apr 25 $70 +$23 +33%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 23 $30 +$8 +27%
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics Apr 18 $1,008 −$257 -26%
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals Apr 18 $420 −$159 -38%
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 18 $65 +$32 +50%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Apr 18 $290 +$9 +3%
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 18 $1,041 −$118 -11%
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees Apr 18 $90 +$38 +42%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 18 $65 +$24 +37%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 18 $375 −$3 -1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 16 $6 +$32 +538%
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics Apr 16 $90 +$36 +40%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 16 $415 +$54 +13%
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 16 $245 +$53 +22%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Apr 16 $270 −$5 -2%
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds Apr 16 $250 +$35 +14%
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 16 $490 −$81 -17%
Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals Apr 15 $375 −$21 -6%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 15 $620 +$8 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 15 $110 +$55 +50%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 15 $60 +$5 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 86% +$727
other 14% −$3,848
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 32m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $7 32m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $59 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $15 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $30 26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals SELL Miami Marlins 86¢ $34 10d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals BUY Miami Marlins 51¢ $20 10d
New York Yankees vs. Athletics SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $50 13d
New York Yankees vs. Athletics BUY New York Yankees 51¢ $15 13d
New York Yankees vs. Athletics BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $10 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 14d
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $30 16d
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 56¢ $30 16d
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $20 19d
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins SELL New York Mets 37¢ $15 20d
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins BUY New York Mets 50¢ $20 20d
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 50¢ $16 20d
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 60¢ $20 20d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 99¢ $31 20d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 64¢ $10 20d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 65¢ $10 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +85.4% +67.7% 50% 50% +28.6%
≤30d 13 +28.9% +16.6% 54% 54% -8.0%
≤90d 106 +5.0% -5.0% 56% 44% -20.5%
all 142 +1.8% -7.9% 58% 41% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 41% -13.9%
10% -16.7% 32% -22.2%
15% -24.8% 21% -29.7%
20% -32.1% 10% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.60 · official $78.61 (match) · 834 history records