Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4342…7090 weather 811 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$51 (+0%) realized +$50 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate91%735W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$9
sports 0% −$1
politics 0% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 55 +2.8% -7.0% 98% 2% -9.2%
≤90d 609 -0.7% -10.1% 93% 2% -9.4%
all 806 -0.4% -9.9% 91% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 4% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses735 / 71
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)806 / 811
History coverage104d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 806 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $131 $132 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 28 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 27 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $47 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C or higher on June 24? Jun 24 $182 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $181 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $180 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $179 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $179 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $155 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $178 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $179 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -40%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 86°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $37 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 94°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $72 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 90°F or higher on Jun Jun 10 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 7? Jun 08 $176 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 5? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 3? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $44 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 2? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 2? Jun 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 1? Jun 02 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $52 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $132 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $40 12h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $12 25h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on Jun BUY No 100¢ $131 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $40 39h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $90 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $47 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $35 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C or higher on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C or higher on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $182 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or below on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $181 6d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $99 7d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $81 7d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $180 8d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $179 9d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $179 10d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $24 11d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $155 11d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $178 12d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 49¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $179 13d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? A BUY 33¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $39 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 81¢ $2 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $138 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.10 · official $184.10 (match) · 1867 history records