Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:04:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
43 0x4340…4f22 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%22W / 7L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 24 +0.1% -9.4% 71% 0% -9.4%
all 29 +0.1% -9.4% 76% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses22 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage164d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 19? No 100¢ 99¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $120 in May? May 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will PayPal (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Pfizer (PFE) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Powell Industries (POWL) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Paramount Skydance (PSKY) beat quarterly earnings? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Williams Companies (WMB) beat quarterly earnings? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will ON Semiconductor (ON) beat quarterly earnings? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 April 20-26? Apr 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Halliburton (HAL) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 22? Apr 21 $1,517 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 22? Apr 21 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 22? Apr 20 $1,350 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on April 22? Apr 20 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on April 21? Apr 20 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on April 21? Apr 20 $246 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 21? Apr 20 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 21? Apr 20 $1,045 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 20? Apr 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on April 21? Apr 20 $399 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $868 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? Apr 19 $299 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? Apr 19 $699 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 March 30-April 5? Apr 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 March 16-22? Apr 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 March 9-15? Mar 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 February 16-22? Feb 21 $6 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 February 9-15? Feb 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 February 2-8? Feb 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on January 3? Feb 07 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will Solana reach $120 in May? SELL No 100¢ $21 22d
Will Solana reach $120 in May? BUY No 99¢ $21 23d
Will Solana reach $100 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $21 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 22? SELL No 100¢ $1,519 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 22? SELL No 100¢ $21 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $1,517 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 22? SELL No 100¢ $50 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $248 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $262 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $614 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 22? SELL No 100¢ $22 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on April 22? SELL No 100¢ $94 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $326 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $824 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $93 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $94 56d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on April 21? SELL No 100¢ $97 56d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on April 21? SELL No 100¢ $247 56d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 21? SELL No 100¢ $110 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 21? SELL No 100¢ $645 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 21? SELL No 100¢ $299 56d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 21? SELL No 100¢ $101 56d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $37 56d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $246 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.03 · official $21.03 (match) · 82 history records