Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:50:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x433f…a0dc crypto 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (764 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22,484 (+3%) realized +$22,484 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate42%81W / 110L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,525per market
Trades / day763.7pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$14,415
sports 38% +$626
crypto 9% −$318
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (764 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 +7.6% -2.7% 42% 14% -11.8%
≤30d 191 +7.6% -2.7% 42% 14% -11.8%
≤90d 191 +7.6% -2.7% 42% 14% -11.8%
all 191 +7.6% -2.7% 42% 14% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover763.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.7% 14% -11.8%
10% -12.0% 11% -20.2%
15% ← realistic here -20.5% 10% -27.9%
20% -28.3% 9% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,290) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
23.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$247 vs −$409 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22,484
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses81 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions0
Markets (closed)191 / 103
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$8,525
Trades / day763.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 191 Trades
no open positions (112 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $126 −$85 -68%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $94 −$94 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Predators vs. Sharks Jun 26 $135 −$135 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Hornets vs. Timberwolves Jun 26 $228 −$228 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 26 $2,186 −$2,185 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 26 $535 −$535 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 26 $541 −$468 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $441 −$435 -99%
Nets vs. Trail Blazers Jun 26 $650 −$646 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $300 −$300 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Jun 26 $0 +$8 +85034%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$152 +609%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $63 −$63 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 26 $1,470 −$1,470 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul Jun 26 $6,373 −$6,326 -99%
Thunder vs. 76ers Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Chase Hooper vs. Lance Gibson Jr. (Lightweight, Main Jun 26 $127 −$127 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Jun 26 $230 −$230 -100%
Magic vs. Pelicans Jun 26 $145 −$145 -100%
Spurs vs. Heat Jun 26 $373 −$373 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-07? Jun 26 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Jun 26 $667 −$667 -100%
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Henrique Rocha Jun 26 $1 +$6 +415%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 26 $3,761 −$3,761 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 26 $214 −$214 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 26 $161 −$159 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Canucks vs. Wild Jun 26 $0 $0 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? Jun 26 $0 $0 -18%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $386 −$386 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $93 +$170 +183%
Celtics vs. Bucks Jun 26 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Jun 26 $73 −$73 -100%
Raptors vs. Jazz Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $17 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $20 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $16 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $36 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $24 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $20 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $9 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $24 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $20 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $12 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $14 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $24 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $50 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $23 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $20 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $23 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $20 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $20 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $28 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.40 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records