Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
43 0x433e…86fc crypto 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 898d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,343 (-37%) realized −$10,305 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%23W / 60L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$6,227
world 22% −$2,615
economics 10% −$1,480
other 0% −$27
sports 0% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-43.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +109.4% +89.5% 100% 100% +89.5%
≤30d 1 +109.4% +89.5% 100% 100% +89.5%
≤90d 36 -56.9% -61.0% 11% 6% -51.4%
all 83 -37.2% -43.2% 28% 25% -43.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.2% 25% -43.4%
10% -48.6% 18% -48.8%
15% -53.6% 13% -53.8%
20% -58.1% 6% -58.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$197 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

898d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized−$10,305
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses23 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)83 / 87
History coverage898d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $53 $44 −$9 (-17%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $46 $43 −$3 (-7%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$56 +109%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 29 $1,050 −$402 -38%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 29 $925 −$442 -48%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 29 $434 +$5 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $1,109 −$761 -69%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 29 $418 −$348 -83%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 29 $270 −$46 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $1,034 −$805 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 23? Apr 18 $68 −$58 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 22? Apr 18 $340 −$324 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 23? Apr 18 $200 −$179 -90%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $85 −$11 -13%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 17 $95 −$27 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 20? Apr 14 $84 −$60 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? Apr 14 $100 −$69 -69%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 13 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $100 −$13 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 18? Apr 13 $104 −$83 -80%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 13 $122 −$7 -6%
Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 18, 2026? Apr 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 14, 2026? Apr 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026? Apr 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 16, 2026? Apr 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Apr 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 13, 2026? Apr 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 06 $191 −$56 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 3? Mar 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 29? Mar 28 $50 −$46 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 26? Mar 25 $50 −$15 -31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 26? Mar 25 $229 −$41 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $190 +$38 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $1,547 −$300 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 24? Mar 24 $300 −$121 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 24? Mar 24 $840 +$71 +8%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 18 $298 −$298 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 16? Mar 15 $500 −$7 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 14? Mar 14 $300 −$299 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 10? Feb 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 9? Feb 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 8? Feb 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? Feb 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 6? Feb 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 5? Feb 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 February 2-8? Feb 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 February 2-8? Feb 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 4? Feb 04 $20 −$10 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3? Feb 04 $51 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $48 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 4¢ $58 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $52 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $52 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $51 7h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $25 49d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $10 49d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes 0¢ $52 49d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $105 49d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? SELL Yes 3¢ $71 49d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $48 49d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 2¢ $70 49d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $10 49d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $105 49d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes 0¢ $105 49d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $224 49d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $83 49d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes 0¢ $73 49d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? SELL Yes 3¢ $152 49d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes 0¢ $94 49d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $105 49d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? SELL Yes 3¢ $205 49d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 7¢ $418 50d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 50d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 2¢ $434 50d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 50d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $117 50d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $61 51d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $106 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.15 · official $166.15 (match) · 252 history records