Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:38:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
43 0x433b…f372 crypto 329 markets active 0h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,856 (-5%) realized −$1,751 · open −$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%179W / 147L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$728
7 days+$914
14 days+$877
30 days+$697
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$952
other 28% −$1,829
world 6% +$64
politics 5% −$363
sports 4% −$411
tech 2% −$357
culture 1% −$343
economics 0% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 241 +9.6% -0.9% 69% 66% -4.8%
≤30d 262 +13.0% +2.3% 64% 61% -5.8%
≤90d 271 +10.4% -0.1% 62% 59% -12.9%
all 326 +0.4% -9.2% 55% 52% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 52% -15.3%
10% -17.9% 44% -23.4%
15% -25.8% 30% -30.8%
20% -33.1% 16% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$61 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$485
Realized−$1,751
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses179 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions3
Markets (closed)326 / 329
History coverage231d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 326 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 88¢ 94¢ $450 $485 +$35 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $203 +$47 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $406 −$20 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $72 +$33 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$16 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $372 +$39 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $143 −$70 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $142 +$38 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $71 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $71 +$22 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $72 +$28 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$79 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $72 −$43 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $71 +$19 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $66 −$64 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$39 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $142 −$140 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $142 +$44 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $152 +$40 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $153 +$43 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $72 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $72 +$45 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $133 +$53 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$89 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $71 +$18 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $71 +$27 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $121 +$22 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $122 +$41 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $71 +$29 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$49 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $454 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $146 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $71 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $71 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $71 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $203 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $304 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $23 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $100 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $71 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $72 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $164 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $301 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $180 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $71 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $485.19 · official $392.85 · 1113 history records