Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:42:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
43 0x433a…1e70 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$35 (+9%) realized −$15 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$7
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$20
sports 28% −$12
crypto 5% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +24.5% +12.6% 67% 67% -18.9%
≤30d 6 +17.8% +6.5% 67% 67% -22.5%
≤90d 6 +17.8% +6.5% 67% 67% -22.5%
all 6 +17.8% +6.5% 67% 67% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.5% 67% -22.5%
10% -3.6% 67% -29.9%
15% -13.0% 67% -36.7%
20% -21.5% 50% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$39 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage11d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $140 $207 +$67 (+48%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-19%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 44¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $18 +$12 +67%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $36 −$27 -77%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $33 +$15 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $30 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $10 30h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 59¢ $18 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 10¢ $8 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $36 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $20 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $51 10d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $33 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $144 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.48 · official $270.48 (match) · 24 history records