Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:27:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4338…3359 weather 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$215 (-15%) realized −$110 · open −$105
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate37%10W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day43.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$307
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -30.5% -37.1% 37% 11% -28.2%
≤30d 27 -30.5% -37.1% 37% 11% -28.2%
≤90d 27 -30.5% -37.1% 37% 11% -28.2%
all 27 -30.5% -37.1% 37% 11% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.1% 11% -28.2%
10% ← realistic here -43.1% 4% -35.1%
15% -48.6% 4% -41.3%
20% -53.7% 4% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$110
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Open positions7
Markets (closed)27 / 34
History coverage5d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day43.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 26? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 26? Yes 61¢ 36¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-41%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 26? No 87¢ 93¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? No 80¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 27? No 83¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27? No 71¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 26? Yes 15¢ $98 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27? Jun 26 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 27? Jun 26 $25 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 27? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 27? Jun 26 $85 −$8 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $83 −$12 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25? Jun 25 $184 −$101 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 25? Jun 25 $62 −$11 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 25? Jun 25 $151 −$63 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 24? Jun 25 $109 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 24? Jun 24 $28 +$25 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 25? Jun 24 $3 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 24? Jun 24 $67 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 23? Jun 24 $13 −$3 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 25? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $15 −$5 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 23? Jun 23 $50 −$15 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 23? Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 23? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $54 −$6 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $14 −$11 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 26? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 26? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27? SELL No 84¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 27? SELL No 93¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 27? SELL Yes 35¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 26? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 27? SELL Yes 26¢ $77 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 27? BUY Yes 31¢ $75 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 27? BUY No 83¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 71¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 80¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 85¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 26? SELL Yes 47¢ $130 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 26? BUY Yes 39¢ $70 18h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 26? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 18h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 26? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 18h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 26? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 19h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 25? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 19h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25? BUY Yes $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25? BUY Yes $47 20h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25? BUY Yes $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25? BUY Yes $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25? BUY Yes $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25? BUY Yes $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25? BUY Yes $0 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.23 · official $49.24 (match) · 202 history records