Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:47:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4337…6e4e
sports · 36 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
−$3,677 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,666 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Net worth$1,319
Realized−$3,666
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions5
Markets (closed)31 / 36
History coverage364d
Avg bet$434
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 5 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$442
7 days+$442
14 days+$442
30 days+$442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Under 79¢ 78¢ $693 $689 −$4 (-1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score No 55¢ 55¢ $306 $304 −$3 (-1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners Over 54¢ 54¢ $232 $230 −$2 (-1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 60¢ 57¢ $57 $55 −$2 (-3%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Paraguay 78¢ 78¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Juventus beat Wydad AC? No 29¢ $2,389 $0 −$2,389 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid beat Pachuca? No 28¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Real Madrid vs. Pachuca: 4+ Goals Scored? No 50¢ $690 $0 −$690 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $116 +$72 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $465 +$79 +17%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $375 +$97 +26%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $227 +$158 +70%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $158 +$126 +79%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $91 −$89 -97%
Real Madrid vs. Pachuca: 4+ Goals Scored? Jun 22 $690 −$690 -100%
Will Real Madrid beat Pachuca? Jun 22 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Juventus beat Wydad AC? Jun 22 $2,389 −$2,389 -100%
UFC Fight Night Parlay: Hill + Fiziev Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. Jun 22 $1,047 +$101 +10%
Will Fluminense beat Ulsan Hyundai? Jun 22 $1,128 −$1,128 -100%
BLAST.tv Austin Major: MOUZ vs. Vitality Jun 21 $465 +$34 +7%
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Bahamondes Jun 21 $67 $0 +1%
Will LAFC beat Esperance Sportive? Jun 21 $257 +$92 +36%
Will Esperance Sportive beat LAFC? Jun 21 $873 +$47 +5%
Inter Miami vs. FC Porto: 3+ Goals Scored? Jun 20 $1,150 −$1,150 -100%
Will Real Madrid vs. Al Hilal end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Real Madrid beat Al Hilal? Jun 19 $114 +$6 +5%
Manchester City vs. Wydad AC: 4+ Goals Scored? Jun 18 $1,230 −$133 -11%
Ulsan vs. Mamelodi: 3+ Goals Scored? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Monterrey vs. Inter Milan: 3+ Goals Scored? Jun 18 $242 +$242 +100%
Chelsea vs. LAFC: 4+ Goals Scored? Jun 17 $438 +$384 +88%
Fluminense vs. Borussia Dortmund: 3+ Goals Scored? Jun 17 $759 +$281 +37%
Boca Juniors vs. Benfica: 3+ Goals Scored? Jun 17 $5 +$6 +127%
Flamengo vs. Esperance Sportive de Tunis: 3+ Goals Scored? Jun 17 $789 +$691 +88%
Will Benfica beat Boca Juniors? Jun 17 $430 −$406 -94%
PSG vs. Atlético Madrid: 3+ Goals Scored? Jun 16 $294 +$145 +49%
Boss Open: Zverev vs. Fritz Jun 15 $246 −$246 -100%
Panthers vs. Oilers Jun 15 $98 +$102 +104%
Thunder vs. Pacers Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 63% +$195
other 37% −$3,872
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $49 42m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $47 46m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 78¢ $42 47m
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $66 50m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $544 55m
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $55 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $66 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $358 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $33 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $24 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 78¢ $56 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $284 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $264 2h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $116 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $90 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 86¢ $7 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 85¢ $459 3h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $227 3h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $231 3h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $90 4h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $55 4h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $62 4h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $50 4h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $47 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 6h
Real Madrid vs. Pachuca: 4+ Goals Scored? BUY No 50¢ $690 355d
Will Real Madrid beat Pachuca? BUY No 28¢ $84 355d
Will Juventus beat Wydad AC? BUY No 29¢ $348 355d
Will Juventus beat Wydad AC? BUY No 29¢ $114 355d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +25.6% +13.6% 83% 83% +18.4%
≤30d 6 +25.6% +13.6% 83% 83% +18.4%
≤90d 6 +25.6% +13.6% 83% 83% +18.4%
all 31 -6.3% -15.2% 58% 42% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 42% -32.7%
10% -23.3% 39% -39.2%
15% -30.7% 35% -45.1%
20% -37.5% 26% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,318.78 · official $1,318.79 (match) · 133 history records