Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:54:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4337…ffe4
weather · 163 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$20 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses161 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)162 / 163
History coverage180d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 1 History 162 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 98¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 10? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 6? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 3? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 2? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on June 2 Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ma Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 29? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 28? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on May May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 27? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma May 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 26? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 25? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on May 25? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 24? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 23? May 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C or higher on May 22? May 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on May 2? May 03 $24 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 29? Apr 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 28? Apr 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 29°C on April 28? Apr 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 27? Apr 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on April 27? Apr 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on April 26? Apr 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on April 25? Apr 26 $24 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? Apr 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on April 23? Apr 23 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 86% +$3
world 6% +$1
politics 4% −$24
other 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $7 25h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $7 30h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 45h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 100¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or below on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $7 7d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $7 8d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $7 9d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 9d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $7 9d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 100¢ $7 10d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $7 10d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on June 2 BUY Yes 100¢ $7 11d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ma BUY Yes 100¢ $7 12d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma BUY Yes 100¢ $7 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $7 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $7 13d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma BUY No 100¢ $7 14d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $7 15d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 15d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on May BUY No 100¢ $7 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 38 -2.5% -11.8% 97% 0% -17.0%
≤90d 84 -1.0% -10.4% 99% 0% -10.9%
all 162 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -10.3%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.37 · official $7.37 (match) · 326 history records