Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:12:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
43 0x4337…5f8b other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$111 (-1%) realized −$123 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate93%51W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$683now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$29
crypto 23% +$20
world 13% +$25
economics 13% +$25
politics 8% −$226
tech 7% +$12
finance 2% +$2
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +1.5% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 12 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.2%
all 55 -4.4% -13.5% 93% 4% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 4% -10.6%
10% -21.8% 4% -19.2%
15% -29.3% 2% -27.0%
20% -36.3% 2% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$62 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$683
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses51 / 4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)55 / 60
History coverage617d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $180 $183 +$3 (+2%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $170 $174 +$4 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $140 $143 +$3 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $133 $133 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $48 $49 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 17 $180 +$3 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $161 +$3 +2%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Jun 03 $122 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 03 $171 +$2 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 03 $178 +$4 +2%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 15 $181 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 15 $266 +$4 +1%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 19 $170 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 14 $166 +$2 +1%
Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? Apr 14 $222 +$3 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 14 $250 +$7 +3%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 20 $240 +$10 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 11 $261 +$7 +3%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Mar 11 $351 +$3 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $220? Feb 14 $125 +$1 +1%
Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislat Feb 14 $130 +$3 +2%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Feb 03 $13 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Feb 03 $220 +$2 +1%
Will Solana reach $190 in January? Feb 03 $369 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 21 $373 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? Jan 03 $280 +$1 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 03 $321 +$1 +0%
Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bps cut" favored on December 9? Dec 23 $240 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 23 $360 +$2 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in November? Dec 07 $583 +$2 +0%
XRP Up or Down on November 13? Nov 28 $222 +$3 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of November 10 above $220? Nov 28 $361 +$1 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? Nov 13 $234 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $237 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on October 16? Oct 27 $220 +$4 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septem Oct 16 $80 +$1 +2%
Linea airdrop in Q3 2025? Oct 16 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin above $110K on August 23 at 4PM ET? Sep 06 $220 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 510 or more times August 1–August 8? Aug 23 $230 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Aug 06 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 26? Aug 06 $166 +$2 +1%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 18–25? Jul 26 $160 +$5 +3%
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 11–18? Jul 22 $160 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 12 $77 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jul 12 $130 +$3 +2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $6 +$2 +30%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 10 $71 $0 +0%
Will Grzegorz Braun be the next President of Poland? Jun 10 $120 $0 +0%
Solana all time high in April? May 11 $88 $0 +0%
X allowed to operate in China before May? May 11 $118 +$1 +1%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Texas win the SEC Tournament? Apr 11 $201 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 950-974 times Feb 7-14? Mar 13 $201 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 14 $194 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $133 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $125 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $168 10d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $170 10d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $164 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $161 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $140 25d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $180 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $171 43d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $180 43d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $122 43d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $178 44d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $181 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $200 74d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $266 74d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? BUY No 99¢ $170 74d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $250 100d
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 96¢ $240 109d
Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? BUY No 99¢ $222 109d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $166 109d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 97¢ $261 133d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $351 144d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $220? BUY No 99¢ $125 144d
Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislat BUY No 98¢ $130 144d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil SELL Yes 97¢ $13 144d
Will Solana reach $190 in January? BUY No 99¢ $369 157d
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY No 99¢ $373 175d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? BUY No 99¢ $220 175d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil BUY Yes 96¢ $13 175d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $321 186d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $682.85 · official $682.85 (match) · 119 history records