Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:35:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4337…8882
sports · 315 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$37,805 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$53,674 · open +$42,938
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,023,074
Realized+$53,674
Unrealized+$42,938
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses87 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$2,524
Open positions481
Markets (closed)124 / 315
Avg bet$1,496
Trades / day1443.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 481 History 124 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53,674
7 days+$53,674
14 days+$53,674
30 days+$53,674
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $279,466 $285,940 +$6,474 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $128,568 $140,242 +$11,674 (+9%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $90,946 $93,837 +$2,892 (+3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 82¢ 88¢ $40,067 $42,643 +$2,576 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $30,033 $29,649 −$383 (-1%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $23,231 $23,903 +$671 (+3%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $21,683 $22,837 +$1,153 (+5%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $20,642 $22,114 +$1,472 (+7%)
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $22,142 $22,101 −$41 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 83¢ $18,467 $18,456 −$11 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $17,210 $17,494 +$284 (+2%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 56¢ 60¢ $15,294 $16,276 +$983 (+6%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $15,833 $16,183 +$350 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 59¢ $13,921 $15,990 +$2,070 (+15%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $13,148 $13,329 +$181 (+1%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 78¢ 66¢ $14,833 $12,577 −$2,256 (-15%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? No 64¢ 67¢ $10,647 $11,067 +$420 (+4%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 27¢ 53¢ $5,523 $10,876 +$5,352 (+97%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $9,255 $8,972 −$283 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $8,343 $8,317 −$26 (-0%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 91¢ 94¢ $7,761 $8,092 +$331 (+4%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? No 89¢ 90¢ $6,958 $7,080 +$122 (+2%)
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? No 88¢ 93¢ $6,621 $7,003 +$382 (+6%)
Will MOUZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $6,130 $6,000 −$129 (-2%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? No 87¢ 94¢ $5,461 $5,890 +$429 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $50 +$135 +270%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $135 −$63 -47%
Rainbow Six Siege: Leviatán Esports vs Four Angry Men (BO3) - CN Leagu Jun 12 $341 −$272 -80%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality - Gam Jun 12 $278 −$213 -76%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America Lea Jun 12 $872 +$238 +27%
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $187 +$134 +72%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31,221 +$82,105 +263%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) Jun 11 $699 +$15 +2%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $364 +$358 +98%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,739 +$1,650 +95%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $482 +$10 +2%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $55 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 11 $1,178 −$67 -6%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,000 +$1,222 +122%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North America League Sta Jun 11 $377 +$178 +47%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $8,588 +$2,014 +24%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $12 +$16 +138%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $577 +$555 +96%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $9 +$6 +67%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $161 +$126 +78%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $21,800 +$89 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $33 +$29 +89%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $685 +$96 +14%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $229 +$269 +117%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 11 $168 +$8 +4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $31 +$24 +79%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $459 −$421 -92%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $527 +$228 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $139 +$200 +144%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 11 $374 −$206 -55%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $489 −$22 -4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $544 +$11 +2%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $510 +$450 +88%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $259 −$32 -12%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 11 $419 −$306 -73%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,062 +$1,020 +96%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 11 $45 +$39 +86%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 11 $2,372 +$74 +3%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $811 +$794 +98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 11 $367 +$3 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $92 −$66 -72%
Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs RUSTEC (+1.5) Jun 11 $3 +$5 +203%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 11 $79 +$47 +59%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 11 $0 $0 +45%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $4 +$5 +138%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $659 −$326 -50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $240 −$211 -88%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2,052 −$1,840 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 83% +$129,714
sports 14% −$33,194
world 2% −$64
politics 1% +$123
finance 0% −$109
tech 0% +$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 0m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3,703 4m
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 6m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 8m
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 14m
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 14m
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 48¢ $2 16m
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 48¢ $2 16m
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 16m
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 17m
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 18m
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 22m
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 23m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 27m
Rainbow Six Siege: SCARZ vs KINOTROPE gaming (BO1) - Asia Pacific Leag BUY KINOTROPE gaming 43¢ $5 27m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $12 28m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 28m
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 31m
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 32m
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 32m
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 34m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $11 36m
Will Harry Kane score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 5¢ $4 39m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $25 39m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 41m
Will Harry Kane score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 5¢ $1 41m
Will Kai Havertz score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $20 44m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $20 44m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $25 45m
Will Harry Kane score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 5¢ $6 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+47.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 +63.2% +47.7% 70% 56% +16.9%
≤30d 124 +63.2% +47.7% 70% 56% +16.9%
≤90d 124 +63.2% +47.7% 70% 56% +16.9%
all 124 +63.2% +47.7% 70% 56% +16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1443.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +47.7% 56% +16.9%
10% +33.6% 52% +5.7%
15% ← realistic here +20.7% 45% -4.5%
20% +8.8% 40% -13.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,023,074.48 · official $1,023,146.98 (match) · 3500 history records