Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:32:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4330…72f5
sports · 234 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$172 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$147 · open +$26
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$189
Realized+$147
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses157 / 66
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions11
Markets (closed)223 / 234
History coverage85d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 11 History 223 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$36
14 days−$7
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 70¢ 100¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+42%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner FURIA 82¢ 100¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+21%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FURIA 74¢ 80¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 67¢ 82¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+22%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 64¢ 84¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+30%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BetBoom Team 66¢ 42¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Vitality 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Vitality 75¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $3 +$3 +93%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $30 +$10 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$16 +81%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $25 +$11 +44%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $13 +$2 +17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$4 +180%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20 +$6 +32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $13 +$5 +40%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 +$1 +44%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$3 +29%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$5 +50%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$6 +55%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$2 +55%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$4 +36%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $15 +$4 +27%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $3 +$3 +109%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 +$3 +307%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 73% +$150
other 26% +$26
world 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 76¢ $15 40m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 73¢ $15 43m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 82¢ $10 43m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 82¢ $20 44m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 65¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 63¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 81¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 69¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 66¢ $10 2h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 66¢ $5 2h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) BUY Vitality 53¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 75¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 51¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 53¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 48¢ $3 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 77¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 61¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $20 6h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Monte 51¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 58¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 61¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 80¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 74¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 55¢ $5 24h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 42¢ $3 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $10 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 86¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -23.8% -31.0% 47% 47% -15.1%
≤30d 115 -0.6% -10.1% 63% 63% -4.0%
≤90d 223 +9.0% -1.4% 70% 70% -0.2%
all 223 +9.0% -1.4% 70% 70% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 70% -0.2%
10% -10.8% 62% -9.8%
15% -19.4% 46% -18.5%
20% -27.3% 27% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.79 · official $188.79 (match) · 487 history records