Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:24:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x432e…424f other 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$53 (-0%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%16W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$15
14 days−$24
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$22
politics 21% −$12
sports 20% −$13
crypto 8% −$3
economics 5% −$1
culture 3% −$4
tech 3% −$11
world 2% −$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.9% -10.3% 9% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 65 -0.8% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 113 -0.6% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 133 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 117
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage100d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $55 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $279 $0 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $38 $0 +1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Jun 17 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $54 −$1 -2%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $110 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $113 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $106 −$2 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 14 $53 −$1 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $231 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $612 −$3 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $48 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $29 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $115 −$2 -2%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $21 $0 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $52 $0 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $45 $0 -1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $51 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $59 −$3 -5%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $56 $0 -1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $60 −$1 -1%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $84 −$1 -1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $41 $0 -1%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $222 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $52 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $44 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 02 $65 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 02 $214 −$2 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $238 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $165 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $372 −$2 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $59 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $54 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 1h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $57 2h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $57 8h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 90¢ $55 8h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 90¢ $55 15h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $46 16h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $47 24h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $38 25h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $38 29h
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion SELL No 91¢ $14 29h
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 94¢ $14 34h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $53 35h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $54 42h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $48 43h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $41 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $7 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $51 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 93¢ $65 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $66 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $52 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $52 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $53 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $54 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $57 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $58 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $52 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $53 3d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $44 4d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $44 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.90 · official $55.90 (match) · 491 history records