Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4329…da65
other · 7 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$132 -52%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$39 · open −$94
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$65
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 3 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$39
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $69 $65 −$4 (-5%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$16 -78%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $39 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-63.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -59.1% -63.0% 25% 25% -58.2%
≤30d 4 -59.1% -63.0% 25% 25% -58.2%
≤90d 4 -59.1% -63.0% 25% 25% -58.2%
all 4 -59.1% -63.0% 25% 25% -58.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.0% 25% -58.2%
10% -66.6% 25% -62.2%
15% -69.8% 25% -65.9%
20% -72.8% 0% -69.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.09 · official $65.09 (match) · 13 history records