Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:55:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4329…5686 other 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 618d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate20%13W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$13
politics 12% −$7
other 7% −$29
sports 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -17.9%
≤30d 16 -12.6% -20.9% 6% 0% -14.1%
≤90d 50 -8.7% -17.4% 18% 12% -10.7%
all 64 -7.0% -15.9% 20% 9% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 9% -9.8%
10% -23.9% 9% -18.4%
15% -31.3% 9% -26.3%
20% -38.0% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses13 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage618d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $12 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $84 $0 -0%
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $59 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 11 $67 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $67 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $65 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $67 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $70 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 02 $66 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $137 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $70 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $68 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $69 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $65 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $134 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $66 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $69 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $64 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $8 +$4 +50%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $7 +$4 +52%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $4 +$6 +146%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Stars vs. Flyers Apr 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 01 $22 $0 +0%
Blues vs. Sharks Apr 01 $32 +$31 +96%
Blackhawks vs. Rangers Mar 30 $23 +$15 +64%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-15? Mar 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Raptors vs. Clippers Mar 27 $37 +$22 +59%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 25 $44 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 4h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 26h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 29h
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $34 47h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $9 3d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $9 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $12 5d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $12 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 53¢ $6 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 10d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 10d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 11d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 12d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 22d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 22d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.51 · official $33.51 (match) · 298 history records