Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:35:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
43 0x4323…db83 crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$43 (+2%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate88%15W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +11.9% +1.3% 88% 65% -7.4%
≤30d 17 +11.9% +1.3% 88% 65% -7.4%
≤90d 17 +11.9% +1.3% 88% 65% -7.4%
all 17 +11.9% +1.3% 88% 65% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.3% 65% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -8.4% 41% -16.3%
15% -17.3% 18% -24.3%
20% -25.4% 12% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$134 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses15 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $102 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $102 +$48 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $201 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $166 −$166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $152 +$25 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $152 +$38 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $152 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $152 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records