Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:40:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x431f…9b39 world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate31%26W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% $0
politics 20% $0
other 17% −$3
sports 15% −$10
economics 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 12% -9.9%
≤30d 30 +67.1% +51.2% 40% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 79 +23.7% +11.9% 32% 4% -9.6%
all 83 +20.8% +9.3% 31% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.3% 4% -9.9%
10% -1.1% 1% -18.6%
15% -10.7% 1% -26.4%
20% -19.4% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses26 / 57
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage535d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $7 +$1 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 22 $4 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 20 $98 −$2 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $80 −$1 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $79 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $37 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $21 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $37 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $117 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $74 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $81 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $69 +$4 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $102 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $38 +$2 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $16 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $97 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $4 $0 -3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $38 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $31 −$5 -16%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $45 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $125 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $23 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $85 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $45 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $171 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $57 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $42 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $39 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $43 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $43 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 23h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 24h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 24h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $4 44h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $4 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $17 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $19 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $6 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $38 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $42 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $41 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.18 · official $40.34 (match) · 352 history records