Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:32:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x431e…4217
other · 45 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$9 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage391d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 0 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$7
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $9 −$1 -17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $35 +$7 +19%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $66 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $6 +$1 +16%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $18 −$1 -3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 10 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 06 $15 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 04 $1 $0 -48%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 27 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 08 $5 $0 -4%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 06 $5 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on June 3? Jun 04 $2 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 03 $2 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 37% +$8
other 35% −$1
politics 20% $0
tech 4% +$2
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $37 2m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $37 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $21 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $12 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $33 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $16 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 24h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $3 31h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $4 31h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 12¢ $4 33h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 12¢ $4 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $41 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $35 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $32 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $31 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $32 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $32 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $13 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $35 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +2.2% -7.5% 45% 18% -7.1%
≤30d 13 +2.1% -7.6% 46% 15% -7.4%
≤90d 13 +2.1% -7.6% 46% 15% -7.4%
all 45 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 4% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 4% -8.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -17.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records