Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x431d…e9dc crypto 233 markets active 2d ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$159 (-10%) realized −$159 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%92W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$256
14 days−$241
30 days−$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$241
sports 2% −$11
other 2% +$5
world 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 155 -22.4% -29.8% 37% 34% -32.3%
≤30d 212 +4.8% -5.2% 42% 39% -23.4%
≤90d 233 +2.3% -7.4% 39% 37% -23.3%
all 233 +2.3% -7.4% 39% 37% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 37% -23.3%
10% -16.3% 34% -30.7%
15% -24.4% 32% -37.4%
20% -31.8% 30% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses92 / 141
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)233 / 233
History coverage75d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 233 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$5 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$6 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 762 history records