Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x431b…3b49
world · 34 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$3 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage258d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 1 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 53¢ 57¢ $42 $46 +$4 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $40 −$1 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 29 $25 $0 -2%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $1 $0 -11%
Mariners vs. Tigers Oct 08 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $3 $0 -1%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 07 $24 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Oct 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $2 $0 +7%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 38% +$2
sports 23% +$1
other 23% $0
politics 12% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $42 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $27 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $27 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $13 15h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $29 15h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $42 15h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 32h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $38 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $32 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $15 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $22 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $37 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $43 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $43 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $44 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $44 9d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 166d
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 245d
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 245d
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 245d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.8% -11.1% 43% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 9 -1.4% -10.7% 44% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 9 -1.4% -10.7% 44% 0% -9.8%
all 33 -0.5% -10.0% 24% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.00 · official $46.00 (match) · 116 history records