Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4317…100f sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$100 (-33%) realized −$98 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$75
other 10% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-55.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -50.4% -55.2% 17% 17% -47.2%
≤30d 6 -50.4% -55.2% 17% 17% -47.2%
≤90d 6 -50.4% -55.2% 17% 17% -47.2%
all 6 -50.4% -55.2% 17% 17% -47.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.2% 17% -47.2%
10% -59.5% 17% -52.2%
15% -63.4% 0% -56.9%
20% -67.0% 0% -61.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$23 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$98
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 50¢ $52 $50 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $32 −$31 -98%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$1 -21%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $95 −$5 -5%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $48 −$47 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $43 +$10 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $52 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 15h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $32 15h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) SELL Australia 5¢ $3 15h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 6¢ $3 15h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 50¢ $90 17h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $95 17h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $48 21h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $53 25h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $43 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.99 · official $49.99 (match) · 10 history records