Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:56:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4312…4ee7 crypto 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$345 (-20%) realized −$345 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%23W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$136
14 days+$136
30 days+$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$46
other 23% +$138
politics 23% −$395
crypto 22% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -4.7% -13.8% 46% 42% +6.1%
≤30d 24 -4.7% -13.8% 46% 42% +6.1%
≤90d 56 -19.6% -27.2% 41% 36% -29.4%
all 56 -19.6% -27.2% 41% 36% -29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 36% -29.4%
10% -34.2% 30% -36.2%
15% -40.5% 29% -42.3%
20% -46.4% 23% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$24 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$345
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses23 / 33
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage66d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$3 -14%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $22 +$13 +60%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$6 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $61 +$35 +57%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$3 -17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $65 +$25 +40%
Dani Olmo: 3+ shots Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$15 -76%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $51 +$68 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 21 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 21 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 21 $10 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $60 −$59 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 21 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 21 $38 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 21 $5 +$8 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 20 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 20 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 20 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 20 $30 −$24 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 20 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 20 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 20 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 20 $30 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 20 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 20 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 20 $30 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 28¢ $20 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $17 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06 BUY 38¢ $36 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 6h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 79¢ $50 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $22 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 81¢ $25 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $25 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $22 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 35h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $61 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 36¢ $13 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.35 · official $105.35 · 111 history records