Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:50:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4309…03a6 sports 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$191 (-8%) realized +$127 · open −$318
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$518now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -9.5% -18.1% 50% 50% +19.4%
≤30d 6 -9.5% -18.1% 50% 50% +19.4%
≤90d 6 -9.5% -18.1% 50% 50% +19.4%
all 6 -9.5% -18.1% 50% 50% +19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 50% +19.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 50% +8.0%
15% -33.1% 50% -2.4%
20% -39.7% 50% -12.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$258 vs −$118 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$518
Realized+$127
Unrealized−$318
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Gentle Mates 58¢ 60¢ $339 $347 +$9 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner ex-RUBY 58¢ 48¢ $206 $170 −$36 (-17%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 44¢ 0¢ $291 $0 −$291 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $303 +$184 +61%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $309 +$319 +103%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $343 +$272 +79%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $225 −$225 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner SELL ex-RUBY 78¢ $276 13m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 44¢ $228 46m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 44¢ $46 46m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 44¢ $17 46m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 57¢ $171 56m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 59¢ $70 56m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 59¢ $3 56m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 59¢ $78 57m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 59¢ $9 57m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 59¢ $12 57m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 59¢ $58 57m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 59¢ $12 57m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 58¢ $343 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $487 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $628 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 62¢ $171 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 62¢ $43 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 62¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 62¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 62¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 62¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 62¢ $82 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 50¢ $270 2h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 40¢ $39 2h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $615 2h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 55¢ $343 3h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 35¢ $86 4h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 35¢ $9 4h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 31¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 31¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $517.70 · official $517.70 (match) · 33 history records