Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4309…a9b5 crypto 1867 markets active 4d ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (97 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$309 (-3%) realized −$309 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate77%1500W / 457L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day96.6pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$433
7 days−$485
14 days−$580
30 days−$827
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$333
other 11% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (97 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 201 -49.8% -54.6% 42% 42% -52.6%
≤30d 1957 -9.2% -17.8% 77% 66% -16.5%
≤90d 1957 -9.2% -17.8% 77% 66% -16.5%
all 1957 -9.2% -17.8% 77% 66% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 66% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 12% -24.5%
15% -32.9% 1% -31.8%
20% -39.4% 0% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$309
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses1500 / 457
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1957 / 1867
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day96.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1957 Trades
no open positions (402 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records