Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:29:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4308…dbe7
other · 41 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$7 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$165
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses38 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage145d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit51%
Chart Positions 2 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cap FDV above $4B one day after launch? No 100¢ 99¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $82 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 02 $163 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 26 $83 $0 +0%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Apr 24 $81 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 12 $81 $0 +0%
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 01 $81 $0 +0%
Katana FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 15 $81 $0 +0%
Katana FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 09 $44 $0 +0%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Mar 08 $20 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Mar 03 $157 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 02 $314 $0 +0%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026? Feb 18 $10 $0 +1%
USD.AI FDV above $6B one day after launch? Feb 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will StandX launch a token by March 31? Feb 08 $49 +$3 +6%
Ventuals FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 07 $10 $0 +0%
StandX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Feb 04 $95 $0 +0%
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? Feb 02 $134 $0 +0%
Felix Protocol FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 01 $10 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jan 26 $124 $0 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jan 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jan 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Jan 22 $20 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jan 21 $63 $0 +0%
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jan 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Jan 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will ETHGAS launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jan 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? Jan 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 20 $73 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 19 $10 $0 +0%
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jan 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 18? Jan 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 18 Jan 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on January 18? Jan 19 $10 $0 +1%
Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jan 19 $10 $0 +0%
Aztec FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 19 $10 $0 +0%
Sentient FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Jan 19 $10 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Jan 18 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 56% +$2
other 38% +$5
world 6% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $79 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $83 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $82 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $83 46d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $78 47d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 47d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $83 48d
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $83 48d
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $81 48d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $80 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $80 51d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $80 51d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $80 53d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $81 60d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $81 69d
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $81 71d
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $81 89d
Katana FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $6 89d
Katana FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $9 89d
Katana FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $9 89d
Katana FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $9 89d
Katana FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $9 89d
Katana FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $9 89d
Katana FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $9 89d
Katana FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $9 89d
Katana FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $10 89d
Katana FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $81 95d
Cap FDV above $4B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $27 95d
Katana FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $44 95d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? SELL No 41¢ $10 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 8 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 39 +0.5% -9.1% 97% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.78 · official $164.78 (match) · 124 history records