Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
43 0x4307…df08 sports 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$875 (-11%) realized −$775 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%21W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days−$294
14 days−$430
30 days−$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$1,589
other 8% +$260
crypto 1% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -28.8% -35.6% 35% 35% -18.8%
≤30d 31 -20.9% -28.4% 39% 39% -20.0%
≤90d 31 -20.9% -28.4% 39% 39% -20.0%
all 50 -18.3% -26.1% 42% 42% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 42% -27.8%
10% -33.2% 40% -34.7%
15% -39.6% 30% -41.0%
20% -45.5% 24% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$95 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$775
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses21 / 29
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage248d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner FURIA 39¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $406 −$26 -6%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $58 +$25 +43%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $202 +$136 +67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $204 −$201 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $304 −$300 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $206 −$11 -6%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $203 −$104 -51%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $464 +$366 +79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $102 +$142 +139%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $231 +$92 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $102 +$32 +31%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$21 -81%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$49 -96%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $61 +$41 +67%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$18 -35%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$34 +66%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $75 −$68 -91%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$5 -10%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$81 -79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$38 +75%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $71 +$17 +24%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $81 −$13 -16%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $49 +$42 +86%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 22 $788 +$254 +32%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 22 $1,264 −$712 -56%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 22 $400 −$400 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $338 −$38 -11%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $16 +$10 +62%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 07 $18 −$1 -7%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 07 $55 +$53 +97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Mar 05 $20 −$17 -83%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 4 Winner Mar 05 $50 +$28 +56%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner Mar 04 $50 +$44 +89%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs M80 - Map 2 Winner Dec 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) Dec 01 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $173 −$1 -1%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 02 $20 +$5 +23%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 02 $47 −$2 -5%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 28 $40 +$16 +41%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Oct 25 $47 +$9 +19%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner Oct 23 $89 −$89 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Oct 17 $176 +$46 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $379 25m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $406 45m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 90¢ $84 46m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 62¢ $58 57m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 39¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL FURIA 26¢ $141 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 34¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 49¢ $203 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $339 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $202 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $204 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 51¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $202 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 50¢ $102 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $195 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $206 2d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 52¢ $101 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 44¢ $102 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar 47¢ $94 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $102 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $830 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $464 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $244 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 41¢ $102 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 96¢ $323 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $231 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 41¢ $102 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 57¢ $133 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 42¢ $102 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $76 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.13 (match) · 116 history records