Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
43 0x4304…ac42 crypto 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$133 (+3%) realized −$4 · open +$137
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate70%33W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$4,028now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$19
14 days+$13
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% +$140
other 7% +$11
crypto 7% −$1
sports 2% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +4.8% -5.2% 88% 38% -5.6%
≤30d 47 +8.7% -1.6% 70% 19% -7.8%
≤90d 47 +8.7% -1.6% 70% 19% -7.8%
all 47 +8.7% -1.6% 70% 19% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 19% -7.8%
10% -11.1% 13% -16.6%
15% -19.7% 13% -24.7%
20% -27.5% 9% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$4,028
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$137
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses33 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions14
Markets (closed)47 / 61
History coverage15d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 32¢ 35¢ $1,560 $1,677 +$117 (+8%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 73¢ 72¢ $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay No 82¢ 84¢ $500 $515 +$15 (+3%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $500 $507 +$7 (+1%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 92¢ 96¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$11 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $200 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $4 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$3 +319%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $2 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$5 +48%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2 $0 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $20 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $2 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 06 $4 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group St Jun 06 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -78%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $25 4m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 5m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 47¢ $1 43h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $2 43h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 42¢ $1 43h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 73¢ $8 43h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 28¢ $235 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $200 2d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 28¢ $318 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group BUY Leo Team 85¢ $4 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $200 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 19¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $10 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 74¢ $500 6d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $100 6d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 57¢ $5 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 43¢ $1 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 8d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 48¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,027.71 · official $4,014.49 (match) · 137 history records