Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:58:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4302…b736
sports · 1017 markets active 0h ago
4.0score
+$1,056 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,056 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,534
Realized+$1,056
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses963 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1010 / 1017
History coverage1067d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 7 History 1010 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$89
14 days+$132
30 days+$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $2,790 $2,791 +$1 (+0%)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-9.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+9.5) HEROIC Academy 100¢ 100¢ $835 $836 +$0 (+0%)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-6.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+6.5) HEROIC Academy 100¢ 100¢ $580 $580 +$0 (+0%)
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $250 $250 +$0 (+0%)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-3.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+3.5) RUSTEC 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Under 100¢ 91¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 13 $129 +$1 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-3.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+3.5) Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: HEROIC Academy (-3.5) vs RUSTEC (+3.5) Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-6.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+6.5) Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: HEROIC Academy (-6.5) vs RUSTEC (+6.5) Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Oxuji Esports (-3.5) vs Misa Esports (+3.5) Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $80 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-3.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+3.5) Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $786 +$1 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-6.5) vs TheMongolz (+6.5) Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 13 $1,132 +$1 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-6.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+6.5) Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-9.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+9.5) Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $529 +$1 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: HEROIC Academy (-3.5) vs RUSTEC (+3.5) Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $1,670 +$6 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $280 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $75 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $216 +$1 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 13 $415 +$1 +0%
Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Minkens finest (+1.5) Jun 13 $595 +$1 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 13 $346 +$2 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: OLDBOYS PL (-3.5) vs Donstu Esports (+3.5) Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $1,412 +$1 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) Jun 12 $1,529 +$1 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-12.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+12.5) Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $12 +$6 +50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $1,359 +$1 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 12 $2,103 +$2 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 12 $82 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 69% +$91
other 30% +$126
crypto 1% +$828
culture 0% +$5
tech 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $250 25m
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $30 31m
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $25 54m
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $33 1h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $200 1h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $60 1h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-9.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+9.5) BUY HEROIC Academy 100¢ $150 1h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $250 1h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $250 1h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-9.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+9.5) BUY HEROIC Academy 100¢ $150 1h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $150 1h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-9.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+9.5) BUY HEROIC Academy 100¢ $5 1h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $500 1h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-9.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+9.5) BUY HEROIC Academy 100¢ $250 1h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $799 1h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-6.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+6.5) BUY HEROIC Academy 100¢ $250 1h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-9.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+9.5) BUY HEROIC Academy 100¢ $251 1h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-6.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+6.5) BUY HEROIC Academy 100¢ $300 1h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $350 1h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 1h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $250 1h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-3.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+3.5) BUY RUSTEC 100¢ $30 1h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 BUY Over 100¢ $20 1h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-9.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+9.5) BUY HEROIC Academy 100¢ $30 1h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-6.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+6.5) BUY HEROIC Academy 100¢ $30 1h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $9 2h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $15 2h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-6.5) vs TheMongolz (+6.5) BUY Natus Vincere 100¢ $30 2h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $20 2h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $30 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 370 -2.7% -12.0% 94% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 873 -1.1% -10.5% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 992 -1.0% -10.5% 96% 1% -9.4%
all 1010 +0.6% -9.0% 95% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -8.9%
10% -17.7% 1% -17.6%
15% -25.6% 1% -25.6%
20% -32.9% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,534.41 · official $4,534.41 (match) · 2853 history records