Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:15:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4301…ac39
crypto · 332 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$823 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,620 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,620
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses166 / 165
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)331 / 332
History coverage11d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day289.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 331 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$903
7 days−$2,523
14 days−$3,620
30 days−$3,620
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $260 $0 −$260 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $147 $0 −$147 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $266 −$120 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $199 +$35 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $236 −$46 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $278 −$260 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $184 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $347 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $81 −$22 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $338 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $264 +$22 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $270 +$47 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $247 −$44 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $228 +$53 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $207 −$24 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $201 −$20 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $215 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $197 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $62 −$35 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $144 −$12 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $152 −$72 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $317 −$104 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $188 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $159 +$42 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $227 −$200 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$71 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $225 +$56 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $244 −$77 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $223 −$59 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $164 −$95 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $224 +$54 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $134 −$130 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $304 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $378 +$36 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $245 −$52 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $418 +$30 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $124 +$43 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $368 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $205 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $289 +$24 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $63 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $348 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $266 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $267 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $225 +$24 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $288 +$26 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $231 −$33 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $165 +$38 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $168 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$3,620
world 0% −$13
other 0% +$23
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $40 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $45 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $231 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 -21.2% -28.7% 52% 24% -18.1%
≤30d 331 -21.6% -29.1% 50% 30% -17.0%
≤90d 331 -21.6% -29.1% 50% 30% -17.0%
all 331 -21.6% -29.1% 50% 30% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover289.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.1% 30% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -35.9% 20% -25.0%
15% -42.1% 11% -32.2%
20% -47.8% 8% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3369 history records